US ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The data will be released at 8.30.

1/ To start, we can highlight that in March, with the exception of Kansas City, the new orders component of manufacturing ISM regional indexes stalled like the national index, which decreased from 54.9 to 54.5.

2/ Nevertheless, it should be noted that durable goods orders are primarily dependent on the automotive and aerospace sectors. Concerning the automotive industry, total sales seasonally adjusted decreased by almost 5% in March. Consequently, new orders in the sector as well as in basic materials should be less dynamic.

3/ Similarly, in the aircraft sector, new orders excluding defense should collapse to the extent that orders received by Boeing, fell nearly 78% from February, a period of the year they have a habit of bouncing back.

4/ Taking into account developments in other sectors and a more favorable adjustment factor than last year, we anticipate a number well below the Bloomberg consensus of 1.7%.

A rajouter

The data will be released at 10.00 a.m.

1/ We can emphasize that the NAHB index showed few encouraging signs with a drop of 1 point of the Single Family Sales: Present component, and stagnation of the Traffic of Prospective Buyers component.

2/ However, it should be stressed that mortgage purchase applications jumped by 12.73% in March.

3/ Similarly, the number of housing starts of one unit in March (39.4K not adjusted) is compatible with new home sales in the range of 29 to 30K (not adjusted).

4/ By taking the most optimistic and after seasonal adjustment, we anticipate an increase of new home sales above the Bloomberg consensus of 318K.

A rajouter

The data will be released at 10.00 a.m.

1/ It should be reminded that the statistics of March 2011 was 253 K and 4260K with seasonal adjustment.

2/ We estimate that the adjusted data to be constant between February and March at 4590K, unadjusted data should increase by 8.40% from March 2011 to March 2012.

3/ However, local data show a smaller increase of about 7.50%. Even though sales of existing homes declined in some areas of US like Arizona (-10.67%) or Maryland (-2.04%), they bounced back quite significantly in some areas like in Iowa (18.04%) or in Wisconsin (21.36%). We get a seasonally adjusted statistics of 4550K, which corresponds to a decrease of 0.80% mom.

4/ Our expectation is below the Bloomberg consensus of 4610K.

A rajouter

The data will be released at 9.15 a.m.

1/ On the one hand, we can note that the Production component of the ISM manufacturing index rose 3 points to 58.3, reflecting acceleration in activity.

2/ Similarly, in the field of industrial production, which includes manufacturing, construction and mining, the nonfarm payrolls rose 31K.

3/ In contrast, the number of hours worked per week on average (taking into account overtime) in each sub-sector has declined significantly.

4/ Finally, with extremely favorable climate, the Utilities component should decline.

We anticipate a modest increase in industrial production well below the Bloomberg consensus of 0.3%.

A rajouter

The data will be released at 8.30 a.m.

1/ We emphasize that the nonfarm payrolls in residential construction fell by 5K, as well, throughout the construction, the number of hours worked per week on average (taking into account overtime) decreased from 38.9h to 38.6h.

2/ Moreover, we note that the component Multifamily which is extremely volatile, rose 28% to 233K in February and could therefore revert to its 6 months moving average, at 200K.

3/ This decline should be offset by the increase in Single family component as suggested by the increase in building permits (4.8%) in February.

4/ The 2-months average of the HMI index declined from 28 the 15 March to 26.5 the 15 April.

Therefore, we think that the number of housing starts will be below the Bloomberg consensus of 698K.

à rajouter